Any full time traders on MR?

AsunaMAXXX said:
L'affaire que j'ai de la misère a saisir , pourquoi les grandes banques canadiennes sont affectées , elles ont toutes plantés de 20-25% et + depuis 1 mois

la Fed injecte 30 milliards , nos banques canadiennes jump 3-5% aujourd'hui
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J'ai pas trop suivi le pourquoi de la dégringolade des banques canadiennes, mais vite vite

-Exposure au pétrole canadien, avec le prix du baril on pompe à perte
-Exposure au marché canadien qui pourrait faire moins bien qu'ailleurs durant la récession
-Rate de la Bank of Canada au plus bas
-Potentiel bulle immobilière dans certains marchés?
 
AsunaMAXXX said:
Ça pourrais refaire le pattern entre 2012-2016 avant de faire la '' 5e touch ''
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That's why you never look at only one technical signal, you want confirmation. If you break through the channel, it test's and breaks through its resistance level at 2500? or the short-term moving average crosses over long-term moving average. etc
 
Spiter_01 said:
Part of the canadian banks plumeting is the rate cut, they're already paying nothing on deposits so it's not like they're going to lower that, but a cut in the central bank rate means they have to cut their prime rate which sets their profitability for all sorts of lines of business, like mortgages, lines of credit etc.
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you should read hempton's view on japanese / european / australian banks. 2 posts in August 2019. World has changed since, but concepts still apply.

he also talks about profitability of certain european banks in the context of negative rates.

IMO, banks got hammered because of:
loan book exposures to oil & gas sector
broader loan book exposure to weak balance sheet borrowers
credit risks in the mortgage loan book (due to removal of non-canadian marginal buyer, which could make the market crack)

less than because of a cut in rates.

yes, rates are going down, but it doesn't mean the mortgage market will stay healthy. rates going down will (in time) be offset by higher credit risk spreads int he mortgage market.
 
AsunaMAXXX said:
j'imagine que tu ne peux plus reculer , s'il manque de fond le fédéral va leur sauver le cul comme Bombardier
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regarder la circulaire.

Ils ne peuvent pas reculer pour les raisons suivantes:

any change, event, occurrence, effect, state of facts or circumstance affecting generally the airline industry or the segments of the travel, hotel and tourism industries in which the Corporation and its Subsidiaries operate;

changes, events or occurrences in general economic, political, or financial conditions in any jurisdiction in which the Corporation or its Subsidiaries operate, including changes in currency exchange rates;

any natural disasters, acts of war (whether declared), uprisings and civil unrest, acts of terrorism or sabotage and outbreaks of disease, including in each of the aforementioned cases, any escalation or worsening thereof;

only to the extent that any such change, event, occurrence, effect, state of facts or circumstances does not have a materially disproportionate effect on the Corporation and its Subsidiaries, taken as a whole, relative to other entities operating in the airline industry or the segments of the travel, hotel and tourism industries in which the Corporation and its Subsidiaries operate; and references in certain sections of the Arrangement Agreement to dollar amounts are not intended to be, and shall not be deemed to be, illustrative or interpretative for purposes of determining whether a Material Adverse Effect has occurred.

etc.

je joue la meme situation sur CGX en ce moment, contrairement a TRZ, il y a moins de risque que le deal soit canné par les autorités.
 
TheCharles said:
À ce point-ci je me demande si ça va faire tomber leur offre d'achat sur Transat...
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The prob is taking on all the extra debt at this point all airlines stonks are in free fall. Once the virus settles down there might be a huge bounce in passenger demand. As it stands now it's unlikely people are hoarding cash vs thinking of vacation.

I'm excepting major job cuts at airlines in the next few weeks. It's late 2001 all over again

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Dibbs said:
there's no "financing out" on the AC / TRZ deal.

you guys should read the circular
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In what sense it's an all cash deal on ACs part. Isn't the clause if they back out or can't get the deal done a 50 million penalty?

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Gregster said:
In what sense it's an all cash deal on ACs part. Isn't the clause if they back out or can't get the deal done a 50 million penalty?

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there's no financing out because they don't need financing, they have cash on hand to finance the deal + lines of credit.

yes there is a break fee but it only applies for:
-unable to obtain "Key Regulatory Approval"
-unable to achieve closing before June 27, 2020 (can be extended)

you can't just walk away from a deal like this. As I said above, they can't back out because the industry goes to shit (unless it's company specific) or because of a pandemic, etc.

The shares never traded at $18, implying that there is/was a regulatory risk component to the deal (17/18 = so like 5% prob the deal wouldn't go through). Now the shares are trading below $13 with the only material risk to the deal being the regulatory component. It's a 40% upside if you think the deal goes through.

edit:
“Key Regulatory Approvals” means the Competition Act Approval, CT Act Approval and the approval of the Arrangement pursuant to the EU Merger Regulation (139/2004).

On CT Approval, they have until May 2, 2020.
 
Gregster said:
The prob is taking on all the extra debt at this point all airlines stonks are in free fall. Once the virus settles down there might be a huge bounce in passenger demand. As it stands now it's unlikely people are hoarding cash vs thinking of vacation.

I'm excepting major job cuts at airlines in the next few weeks. It's late 2001 all over again

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Doesn't matter, governments have already signaled a willingness for industrial policy to support struggling sectors. The US has already singled out airlines and cruises, we'll shadow the move.
 
Dibbs said:
you should read hempton's view on japanese / european / australian banks. 2 posts in August 2019. World has changed since, but concepts still apply.

he also talks about profitability of certain european banks in the context of negative rates.

IMO, banks got hammered because of:
loan book exposures to oil & gas sector
broader loan book exposure to weak balance sheet borrowers
credit risks in the mortgage loan book (due to removal of non-canadian marginal buyer, which could make the market crack)

less than because of a cut in rates.

yes, rates are going down, but it doesn't mean the mortgage market will stay healthy. rates going down will (in time) be offset by higher credit risk spreads int he mortgage market.
Click to expand...

So do you think the market is coming around to Steve Eisman's point of view or that still has yet to happen until the banks actually book that increase in credit risk spread?

For those who want to know what Eisman's view is:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/s...banks-now-taking-aim-at-canadian-tire~1762697
 
Dibbs said:
there's no financing out because they don't need financing, they have cash on hand to finance the deal + lines of credit.

yes there is a break fee but it only applies for:
-unable to obtain "Key Regulatory Approval"
-unable to achieve closing before June 27, 2020 (can be extended)

you can't just walk away from a deal like this. As I said above, they can't back out because the industry goes to shit (unless it's company specific) or because of a pandemic, etc.

The shares never traded at $18, implying that there is/was a regulatory risk component to the deal (17/18 = so like 5% prob the deal wouldn't go through). Now the shares are trading below $13 with the only material risk to the deal being the regulatory component. It's a 40% upside if you think the deal goes through.

edit:
“Key Regulatory Approvals” means the Competition Act Approval, CT Act Approval and the approval of the Arrangement pursuant to the EU Merger Regulation (139/2004).

On CT Approval, they have until May 2, 2020.
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Thanks for clearing it up. I didn't mean to come off as snappy!

Right now if DOW goes down close around 20,000 buy index funds to hold a long time. Actually always buy equities to hold a long time. Anything else is just gambling but we all like to gamble. It's human nature

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c'est bizarre que plusieurs stock européen , ne connaisse pas des drops aussi significative que plusieurs stock de l'amérique ( nord//sud)
 
Going from bad to worse for Boeing, price under $200/share:

Boeing booked 46 cancellations last month, with net loss of 28 orders
Mar. 11, 2020 12:35 PM ET|About: The Boeing Company (BA)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
Boeing (BA -12.4%) reports 46 canceled jet orders for February, including 11 737 MAX planes for Air Canada and moves by other carriers to switch from the grounded aircraft to other planes.
The company also booked new orders for 18 planes, resulting in a net loss of 28 orders.
Boeing also reportedly has told employees it is immediately suspending hiring and implementing other measures to preserve cash.
Shares hit a 52-week low earlier following reports that the company planned to draw down its entire $13.8B bank loan, and could be headed for its lowest since July 2017.
 
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