Any full time traders on MR?

moi demain


HarshIcyAmethystinepython-max-1mb.gif
 
Out of curiosity, how many kept out of the market and kept dry powder?

I could be completely wrong but here's how I see it:

Early 2000's tech bubble. Crash ->Rates dropped to 0, inflates the housing bubble of 2008 which pops and back to 0 we went. However this time they do QE. The past 10 years, they inflated the everything bubble. Stocks, housing, cars, art... i mean how the fuck does a banana taped to a wall get 6 figures?

Most happily chimed that everything was going well with the economy but we couldn't even get to 3% which is how laughably weak the economy was. Trump as a candidate called it spot on but for some deranged reason, he completely forgot that the second he was inaugurated and further upwards it went. The bubble was always there, starting to be reinflated from 2009 then COVID came in like your typical black swan and here we are.

From here it goes 2 ways IMHO.

1) They stop printing crazy amounts, let the system flush out the insanity that has taken place over the past 2 decades (a recession possibly even a depression) and the system returns to normal in a few years.
2) They turn the printing presses to maximum overdrive as the markets continue to dive. Those Trillions then cause runaway inflation and we join the ranks of the Wiemar republic, Zimbabwe and Venezuela.

I honestly think the second scenario is more likely and I don't think we're there just yet. Prices will keep going down and we haven't seen the kitchen sink be thrown in just yet. Hard to tell when but that's when you want to buy hard assets cheaply and lock in a mortgage rate for 5-10 years. Markets will go back up in absolute terms but not in purchasing power.

There is one final gamble that is unlikely to happen. That would be if things get so bad globally, they reinstate the one thing that is still universally trusted among any nation. Gold. The currency printed by various nations wouldn't be worth the paper they're printed on but gold, that will be accepted for international trade no problem. We would then conclude the insanity that fucker Nixon started and we should be able to prosper.
 
Option 2 but with a careful eye on China . I'm expecting China to be heavily sanctioned in the coming years and I would pay attention to the property market as PRC loyalists starting selling stuff... this might also be the final nail in retails coffin.

Look we all knew the bubble was going to burst, especially in Canada. We didn't call it exploding in a 2-3 week period here and across the border.

I am waiting for the reintroduction of the 1000$ bill though..USA as reserve currency will just print more. For us this could be hyper inflation

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I wish governments would grow some and start seizing PRC assets in their respective countries.

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Gregster said:
I wish governments would grow some and start seizing PRC assets in their respective countries.

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Yes, but they have to be careful how they do it. We don't want to start a shooting war because that's another way to "reset" the system.

Also China has the US by the balls. If they dumped their US treasuries the US dollar would crater. They would lose, but the US would lose a lot more.
 
I've always questioned just how much they would crater. It's not like the world is going to get behind the RMB... Back to GBP?

Regardless. China needs to pay they can't get away this time

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B R E A K I N G: The Fed. just announced it will extend purchases across ALL asset classes in "amounts needed."
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the market should go up at least till the opening...then we will see
 
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It will likely take months for Canada to get through the coronavirus crisis and deal with the “economic stoppage,” Justin Trudeau says
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Peter Schiff
@PeterSchiff
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2m
Investors shouldn't get excited about stock prices rising in response to the official launch of QE infinity, and the Fed's effective commitment to monetize all Treasury debt. When money's value is destroyed, all prices rise. Consumers prices will rise much more than stock prices!
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J'ai dompé mes PUTS disney à l'ouverture, un mini profit de 17% mais avec les premium de fou je pouvait pas les garder trop longtemps.. je me prépare pour le prochain gros rebond et je rembarque.
 
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