Mcgregor lost his first fight vs nate fuckin diaz boxing most of the fight and being so gassed out(in 9 minutes of fighting) he got subbed before the end of round 2.
Now youre going to tell me this guy is even going to be able to last over 9.5 rounds fighting Floyd Mayweather? Give me a fuckin break.
Ok, Floyd hasnt KOed anyone since the invention of sliced bread... why? It wasnt in his gameplan, Floyd follows his game plan to the T and it works every time.
The problem here is that even if his game plan is to coast to a decision, I don't see Connor getting past the 8th round. I think Connor will get gassed, then frustrated, then pull some stupid shit and get either DQ'ed or TKO'ed.
Floyd might be 40 but being 40 isnt what it used to be, 40 is the new 30. Loook at Tom Brady, just won a superbowl on the greatest comeback in the history of mankind claiming he is in the best shape of his career and following the strictest and most advanced diet/training regime ever. Look at Hopkins who was still kicking ass at 50.
Athletes eat better, train better and last way longer than ever before, the longevity of athletes improves every year and it is being reflected in every single sport . The age advantage is completely overstated in this fight.
Now for the betting angle.
The bookies are licking their chops right now. Every fuckin casual bettor is on Connor ML or Connor by KO because there is a chance of making +500 and even more for KO option. No casual bettor ever bets at -650 because it's not ''exciting'' to put -650 on the table for a return of 100, or 20 dollars to make 3.50.
The line dropped from -1100 to -650 for Mayweather, that means most of the money on this fight, which is small bets mostly from unseasoned gamblers, is on Connor.
Then the next ''juiciest" option, if you are not sucked in by all the marketing and you re not into throwing your cash outside of the window, is to take Floyd Decision for +220. I don't think this is necessarily a bad bet because of Floyd's history, but for the current situation, I think the odds are not good enough and I would only personally take this in a hedging position if it was at +300 or better.
So for the reasons stated above I think the two best bets are:
Floyd inside the distance: @ -145
or
Fight under 9.5 rounds: @ -155
and if you really think Connor can last 12 rounds, you can hedge your position with Floyd by Decision, but I would wait to bet because I believe that line will move up before fight night.
If you think Connor has a chance to KO Floyd, I think the best bet is under 9.5. If by a miracle he gets it you get payed and If he fails going all out, he will gas out fast and he will not have enough left in the tank to get past the 9th and you will also get payed.
Im still torn on the value between those two ''best bets'' stated above and havent made my final decision.
Most Pro bettors are dropping Huge amounts on Floyd ML.
Bet wisely
ps: For the record I'm not a fan of either fighter and I don't dislike any of them either, so emotions are completely out of my equation.
psps: For the love of god don't go out there and bet with mise O jeux and get completely ass raped by the worst book/odds/juice in North America(by a WIDE margin), use a proper book like Pinnacle or 365.
