New study finds LEGO sets may just be a better investment than gold

Spaceman Spiff

Spaceman Spiff

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lego_millennium_falcon0.jpg

Anyone who’s ever shelled out some 800 credits for LEGO’s Star Wars Ultimate Collector’s Millennium Falcon knows that the building bricks are worth more than their plastic weight, but who knew they were worth more than gold?

According to a recent study by Victoria Dobrynskaya — an assistant professor at Russia’s Higher School of Economics who looked at her son's LEGO collection and thought maybe she had an investment already — from 1987-2015, LEGO sets bested not just gold returns on investment, but also large stocks and bonds ... to the tune of 11 percent a year.

In a paper titled “Lego -- The Toy of Smart Investors,” Dobrynskaya and student Julia Kishilova looked at the initial offering price of some 2,300 sets offered by LEGO in that timeframe, and then compared the price return with sales on secondary markets like eBay.

And apparently, though the Falcon was recently offered as LEGO’s highest-priced set, big-ticket items aren’t necessarily the best way to invest in the toy sets. In a trend similar to the Fama-French three-factor model, which very basically posits that investing in smaller companies yields bigger returns, smaller LEGO kits showed more growth than larger ones.

“The beta of the size factor is statistically significant and the dynamics of the LEGO index we created for our research is similar to that of the size factor,” Dobrynskaya told Bloomberg. “LEGO sets don’t show a significant correlation to the financial crises and can be seen as an attractive investment with a diversification potential.”

In one case, they even found a whopping 613 percent ROI, on a kit for Star Wars Darth Revan that retailed for $3.99 in 2014 and then sold for $28.46 on eBay the following year. That’s not playing around.

Now, before you start buying even more LEGO sets, keep in mind, there’s as much certainty in this study as there is in the rest of the investment market. So buyer beware; but at least if you can’t sell a LEGO set, you can still play with it.
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https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/new-study-lego-sets-better-investment-than-gold
 
effectivement,

Jadis je collectionnais les legos (pas les lego pour enfant) ceux d'adulte qui prenne de la valeur...les vrais legos....j'ai tout vendu ma collection.
 
I have an optimus prime 90's transformer, super good condtion with the whole kit, guns with springs, it was like 40$ at the time, don't have the box, what do you guys think that would be worth?!?!
 
Acheter tout ce qui est bateau de pirate ca prend de la. Valeur asser incroyable.

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C'est comme les cartes de hockey. Ca peut prendre beaucoup de valeur mais c'est un gamble
 
S1FAP said:
C'est comme les cartes de hockey. Ca peut prendre beaucoup de valeur mais c'est un gamble
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Pas tant les bateau comme jai dit le prix fait juste monter depuis 15 ans. Ya des set qui ce vende au dela de 850$.

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I have thousands of hot wheels still in the package, and a couple hundred late 70's to 80's blackwall era loose cars. Been at it since around 2005.

Some are worth a lot (let's say 50+) some aren't worth shit. My collection still isn't worth more than what I paid for the cars, so I'm not "making" any money yet. Was never really the point TBH. Thing with collecting is after a while you develop an eye for what will be worth something later and it can take years to get good at it. This is why you should not start collecting shit just for the money, because you will buy a lot of flukes in your early years of noobitude. In the world of diecast collecting, for some reason Volkswagen models tend to keep or increase in value more than anything else. The VAG is strong in diecast collecting.

I slowed down a lot when I started collecting retro games and haven't really looked back since. Thousands of diecast cars will take up a lot of space if you display them, while retro gaming also takes up space, but at least you can use your collection actively and have actual fun with it. I still buy diecast but not nearly as much as I used to.

Legos are already out of control. I would love to get into the game but the kits that I want are so fucking expensive I get buyer's guilt just dreaming about them.
 
Lego's ain't got anything on the Venezuelan stock market. I think it's up by around 75000%.

Hate too rain on the parade but when the government is printing money like crazy, pretty much anything real in dollar terms goes up in price. In these "good times" when people see that their portfolio is up and their house took value, they then indulge in nostalgic purchase at ridiculous prices because of all the money floating around.

Not here to judge someone on how they want to spend their money, just to laugh at the notion that it's an "investment". How much are those beanie babies now?
 
Je viens de vendre deux jeux de SNES sur ebay pour 515$. +shipping

FF4 cib/mint (350$+ship)
Secret of Mana cib/good condition (165$+ship)

J'en ai 4-5 autres listé et je suis très patient.... je suis sur le bord de vendre Super Metroid pour 300$, jai deux personnes qui demande des photos addtionnels.

ask me anything. :D
 
250Rocket said:
Lego's ain't got anything on the Venezuelan stock market. I think it's up by around 75000%.

Hate too rain on the parade but when the government is printing money like crazy, pretty much anything real in dollar terms goes up in price. In these "good times" when people see that their portfolio is up and their house took value, they then indulge in nostalgic purchase at ridiculous prices because of all the money floating around.

Not here to judge someone on how they want to spend their money, just to laugh at the notion that it's an "investment". How much are those beanie babies now?
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Really, barring some apocalyptic scenario, just about anything becomes an investment if kept long enough and in good shape. Unfortunately some things take more than a lifetime to gain their value :p
A roll of 50 uncirculated pennies from 1983 would be worth about $90 now. If I had known this when I was a kid, I would have been buying rolls of coins from the bank instead of penny candy from the dep.

Gold is generally bought as a hedge against inflation, not as a get rich quick investment unless you buy at the exact right time. My uncle was tipped off before the end of the gold standard, bought quite a bit then watched it go up exponentially.
 
Stirl_ae86 said:
Really, barring some apocalyptic scenario, just about anything becomes an investment if kept long enough and in good shape. Unfortunately some things take more than a lifetime to gain their value :p
A roll of 50 uncirculated pennies from 1983 would be worth about $90 now. If I had known this when I was a kid, I would have been buying rolls of coins from the bank instead of penny candy from the dep.

Gold is generally bought as a hedge against inflation, not as a get rich quick investment unless you buy at the exact right time. My uncle was tipped off before the end of the gold standard, bought quite a bit then watched it go up exponentially.
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You're right that almost anything will be worth more money in the distant future but that's where we need to start changing people's perception.

The real items in this world are not gaining in value, our fiat currencies are losing value.

I would be willing to bet that if our financial system doesn't undergo a major transformation, that within a 5-10 decades, you'll probably be buying a pack of gum for like $50. It doesn't mean a pack of gum is a good investment at roughly a 5000% increase, it's just that your piece of paper that has a fancy $50 printed on it in 2019 lost 95% of it's value in that time.

I'm sure you know about this but the population at large is getting fucked over every year by this. Then the ones who benefit from this laugh as Boomers argue with Millennials over who screwed who.
 
Un exemple de ma collection que j'avais.

J'avais un set acheté neuf pour 345$ tx in. revendu 1 ans et demi apres 900$ sur kijiji.

Il était en super demande car Lego ne l'avait pas mis en vente super longtemps sur leur site,peut-être 1 ans genre.
 
250Rocket said:
You're right that almost anything will be worth more money in the distant future but that's where we need to start changing people's perception.

The real items in this world are not gaining in value, our fiat currencies are losing value.

I would be willing to bet that if our financial system doesn't undergo a major transformation, that within a 5-10 decades, you'll probably be buying a pack of gum for like $50. It doesn't mean a pack of gum is a good investment at roughly a 5000% increase, it's just that your piece of paper that has a fancy $50 printed on it in 2019 lost 95% of it's value in that time.

I'm sure you know about this but the population at large is getting fucked over every year by this. Then the ones who benefit from this laugh as Boomers argue with Millennials over who screwed who.
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Absolutely true, but back to that penny that cost 0.01 in 1983 and is worth $1.80 today. It represents a 180x or 18000% increase. Still a massive return compared to inflation or currency devaluation. Not like a guy that buys a car for $50k then sells it for $100k 30 years later and thinks he made money.
 
Stirl_ae86 said:
Absolutely true, but back to that penny that cost 0.01 in 1983 and is worth $1.80 today. It represents a 180x or 18000% increase. Still a massive return compared to inflation or currency devaluation. Not like a guy that buys a car for $50k then sells it for $100k 30 years later and thinks he made money.
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Out of curiosity, what's so special about that penny? Copper content?
 
Nothing, that's just what an uncirculated 1983 (year of my birth) penny is worth in MS-63 condition which is pretty common for an uncirculated coin. MS-64 would be worth $9.10, MS-65 $18.20, MS-66 $69.20, MS-67 $170. Even a poorly struck uncirculated penny is worth minimum $0.10, so 10x its purchase price which still exceeds inflation. Copper value of a penny is around 2 cents.

Pennies are worth more because they're discontinued, but a 1983 nickel for example in MS-63 condition is worth about $1 today, $14.80 in MS-64. Still a good investment IMO.

For my comment about some investments taking more than a lifetime to pay off, a 1918 Canada penny in MS-63 is worth $60 ($360 in MS-65). A $1.50 investment by our great grandparents in 1918 ($25 in 2019 with inflation) could have been worth $9000 today, possibly exponentially more with some good quality coins in there.
 
Besides, I invest in LEGO just to sprinkle them by the front door entrance, that way any thief breaking into my house will have to walk through hell...
 
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