Fermez les frontières, un nouveau virus apparaît: La COVID-19

Or wish that someone on the board catch the disease and spend 5 months at the hospital. Real adults exchanges right?

Tu vas tu pleurer ? Si on m’apprenait que t’étais une femme je serais pas surpris lol. C’est impossible d’avoir une conversation sans que tes émotions prennent le dessus et que la logique sacre le camp.

Et pour préciser, j’ai dis que je trouverais ça drôle que tu l’attrapes, mais je ne te le souhaite pas. Ce serait quand même très drôle.
 
C'est le contraire que j'ai lu partout, la version la plus aggressive serait celle qui a fait des ravages au début en Chine et maintenant on aurait la version moins aggressive.

Ce serait habituellement le contraire lors de la mutation d'un virus mais pour le Covid-19 ca semblait bien être ca :dunno:

Doesn't the link you posted from Forbes counter your own argument? The original virus was less aggressive and muted into the more aggressive strain found present in Wuhan. So what prompts you to think as it potentially continues to mutate that the new strains are going to be less potent?
 
Doesn't the link you posted from Forbes counter your own argument? The original virus was less aggressive and muted into the more aggressive strain found present in Wuhan. So what prompts you to think as it potentially continues to mutate that the new strains are going to be less potent?

Actually I think you are right and I failed at english :

That more aggressive strain was found in early cases from Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus was thought to have originated from, and the researchers think it may have evolved from the less aggressive type.

When reading quickly, the first underlined part looks like it's saying the aggressive cases were found in the early cases, hence my conclusion that the less aggressive cases were found within the rest. But when reading the bold part a second time they basically say it evolved FROM the less aggressive type meaning people in China had the less aggressive type and first, and then got the more aggressive one.

My bad!

Sorry for the panic interruption, Grim you can start back panicking :bigup:
 
Actually I think you are right and I failed at english :



When reading quickly, the first underlined part looks like it's saying the aggressive cases were found in the early cases, hence my conclusion that the less aggressive cases were found within the rest. But when reading the bold part a second time they basically say it evolved FROM the less aggressive type meaning people in China had the less aggressive type and first, and then got the more aggressive one.

My bad!

No worries man. We're all trying to make sense of the inundation of information surrounding this stuff. I hadn't heard of the notion that the Wuhan version was a mutation itself and so I appreciated the link.
 
A radio-Canada hier une micro-biologiste expliquait la mutation.

En gros il y a la souche d'origine qui vient de la chauve souris, qui fût portée par un animal hote puis transmis à l'homme. Cette souche originelle est la souche S. Cette souche primitive se transmettait plus difficilement à l'homme, son coefficient R est moindre. Rapidement le virus a muté en version L, cette version est celle qui progresse fortement depuis le début. La souche S a progressivement tombée dans l'ombre car moins transmissible et la L est maintenant la prédominante. Il n'est pas démontré que la L est plus mortelle ou dangereuse au niveau des symptomes, son facteur R serait plus haut. L'agressivité ne veut pas nécessairement dire agressivité en terme de mortalité mais d'avantage en terme de virulance de transmission. Néanmoins on fait affaire à la souche L depuis pas mal le début de la crise en Chine.

Elle disait que c'est normal qu'un virus mute, il mute probablement à chaque cas transmis mais une mutation amène pas nécessairement un changement important au niveau du danger. Il faudra néanmoins adapter le vaccin pour contenir les 2 souches.

Voici l'entrevue avec cette microbiologiste, j'aimais mieux son entrevue à RDI qui parlait plus du début de la souche S, mais cette entrevue est ok aussi:

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/premier...ntrevue/157808/covid-19-mutation-transmission
 
Germany 670 cas, 0 mort, seulement 8 critique. c'est quoi leur secret?

South Korea, 6 593 cas, 43 morts, seulement 52 critiques. C'est grosso modo des statistique de grippes. C'est quoi leur secret?

Grim trouve nous des réponses.

On prend tu un billet pour la Corée? Aussi bien se mettre dans la gueule du loup la bas.
 
Dans le tout dernier Situation Report du WHO:

"SUBJECT IN FOCUS: Q&A: Similarities and differences – COVID-19 and influenza

Q. How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses similar?

Firstly, COVID-19 and influenza viruses have a similar disease presentation. That is, they both cause respiratory disease, which presents as a wide range of illness from asymptomatic or mild through to severe disease and death. Secondly, both viruses are transmitted by contact, droplets and fomites. As a result, the same public health measures, such as hand hygiene and good respiratory etiquette (coughing into your elbow or into a tissue and immediately disposing of the tissue), are important actions all can take to prevent infection.

Q. How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses different?
The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID19. Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult.

Children are important drivers of influenza virus transmission in the community. For COVID-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa.

While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection. Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women, elderly, those with underlying
chronic medical conditions and those who are immunosuppressed. For COVID-19, our current understanding is that older age and underlying conditions increase the risk for severe infection.

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

Q. What medical interventions are available for COVID-19 and influenza viruses?
While there are a number of therapeutics currently in clinical trials in China and more than 20 vaccines in development for COVID-19, there are currently no licensed vaccines or therapeutics for COVID-19. In contrast, antivirals and vaccines available for influenza. While the influenza vaccine is not effective against COVID-19 virus, it is highly recommended to get vaccinated each year to prevent influenza infection. "
 
"This is the most frightening disease I've ever encountered in my career. And that includes Ebola, it includes MERS, it includes SARS.

And it's frightening because of it's infectiousness, and a lethality that is manyfold higher than flu, as well as it's ability to cause serious disease and death.

We have not since 1918, the Spanish Flu, seen a virus that combines those two qualities in the same way. We have seen very lethal viruses, certainly Ebola, or Nipah, or any of the other diseases. Those viruses have a high mortality rate, Ebola is as high as 80%. But those viruses don't have the infectiousness that this virus has.

This virus has a potential to cause a global pandemic to the scale of the Spanish Flu. "


- Richard Hatchett, Public health executive with extensive governmental expertise and leadership experience in medical countermeasure development and public health emergency preparedness more generally. Served in the White Houses of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama and designed and led medical countermeasure development programs at BARDA and NIH, including planning for and responding to H5N1 avian influenza ("bird flu"), the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic, and the Ebola, MERS, and Zika epidemics."

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1235994748005085186


Tirez-en vos conclusions.
 
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