SilverViper
Premium
Ce que je dis, c’est que pour calculer le taux de mortalité actuel et ce sans spéculer, on ne peut que se baser sur le plus gros échantillon valide qu’on détient à l’heure actuelle, soit les closed cases, simple stats guys.
Non, on ne peut pas calculer le taux de mortalité du tout pour l'instant. Selon des experts, à cause des cas quasi asymptomatiques, on serait probablement plus près de 1% ou même moins.
https://www.livescience.com/new-china-coronavirus-faq.html
"However, the new study found that the death rate from COVID-19 varied by location. In Hubei Province, where the outbreak began, the death rate was 2.9%, compared with just 0.4% in other provinces — a 7-fold difference.
The study also showed that older adults have been hit hardest by COVID-19. Among those ages 80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%, compared with 8.0% for those ages 70 to 79; 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for those ages 50 to 59; 0.4% for those ages 40 to 49, and 0.2% for those ages 10 to 39. No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9.
However, some experts have estimated that the number of COVID-19 cases could be much higher than what has been officially tracked and reported, according to the BBC. If that's the case, then the death rate could be lower than what's reported in this study."