There is an article on Business Insider which predicts that almost nobody will own a car in the next twenty five years.
The author makes a descent case and I like the horse comparison she has come up with. I have a feeling it might be more like 50 years rather than 25 years but she’s probably right. Why would anyone own a vehicle if the kind of automation that we know if coming makes that expense obsolete?
In just a few short decades, owning a car could be a lot like owning a horse — mostly for hobbyists and really unnecessary for transportation purposes.Technologies such as self-driving cars paired with transportation networks such as Uber will pretty much kill the need to own a car in 25 to 30 years, Jamais Cascio, a futurist and senior fellow at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, told Business Insider.
While it may be hard to think of parting with your car right now, the truth is, trading ownership for a service model may actually make more sense in the long-term.
Cascio argues that the traditional car model will become more or less obsolete because self-driving cars are simply more efficient. People will not own cars because it makes more sense for them to use a network of self-driving cars that will show up on demand when needed.
« It may not be the vehicle that brought to you where you are and you may not be in that vehicle later in the day, but transportation is a service that is almost without notice, » he said. « It’s individualized without being individually owned. It’s individual without being personal. It’s no more individual than a sidewalk. Or no more personal than a sidewalk. It’s just a tool. »
Discussion: http://www.montrealracing.com/forums/showthread.php?888316-Why-no-one-will-own-a-car-in-25-years