2019 has been a strange year for Ferrari. The team that have traditionally had a championship challenger and a rear gunner have had 2 genuine title contenders (setting aside relative car pace) this year. And of the 20 races so far run, Vettel - a 4 time champion, with more than a decade of experience under his belt - has beaten Leclerc - a rookie with just one year's experience, in a Sauber of all things - in just 11 of those 20 races. Granted, that is a (slim) majority. But let's look at this in more detail, focusing not so much on the successes but the major errors made by each driver.
In Australia, the team did realistically all they could. A 4-5 finish, favouring Seb, made total sense.
Bahrain rocked the form book. Badly. Leclerc was dominant. If not for his mechanical woes, he would have taken a convincing win in only his second start for Ferrari. That contrasted sharply with Vettel, who couldn't seem to avoid his tail-happy Ferrari's desire to take up ballet lessons. Echoes of Massa at Silverstone in 2008, but without the rain. First major point against Vettel.
China was another quiet affair, a 3-5 result in favour of Vettel. Honestly, all I can really remember of that race now is the fastest lap for Gasly. Azerbaijan waws another 3-5 to Vettel, again without much to report, and the same again with Spain's 4-5. Bahrain was starting to look like a flash in the pan at this point.
Monaco. This offers Vettel a reprieve, with Leclerc's impatience ruining his race. So that's now one point apiece.
Canada, on paper, goes in Vettel's favour. But there's the small matter of nearly putting Hamilton in the wall after cutting the chicane. Despite the double podium, Vettel's actions there score him a second point. The equality is gone again.
France. This was the start of a short period of domination by Leclerc over Vettel, but there's no glaring error here to call out for either driver.
Austria. Leclerc should have won this one as well, which would bring Ferrari to a theoretical 3 wins, but in the end Verstappen used his experience and knowledge of just how far he could push the stewards (and the Ferrari) without a penalty to his advantage. And Leclerc chalked it up as a lesson learned. We'll revisit this point later.
Silverstone was a terrible day for Vettel. He'd been outqualified already, pretty convincingly, and had to fight his way through. In the end, all he could do was ram Verstappen and basically end both drivers' chances of a podium. Max was lucky he could limp to 5th. Leclerc ended up on the podium, while Vettel followed the Williams cars home, with only himself to blame. The score stands at 3-1.
Germany highlighted a major flaw in Leclerc's skillset, which we saw last year at the same race. Wet driving isn't his strength. Seb made the podium, and Leclerc ended up in the wall. 3-2.
Hungary was a bit of a non-event for Ferrari, distantly following home Verstappen and a truly on form Hamilton.
Belgium was the first time either driver actually managed to put a mark in the win column, rather than just the "should have been" column. Leclerc dominated the weekend, although there's nothing to mark against Vettel here. Nonetheless, it had to hurt that Leclerc legitimately beat him to the first Ferrari win of the year.
If Belgium was painful, Italy was just kicking a man while he was down. Leclerc pulled off a Ferrari win on Italian soil, complete with a few moves learned from Max in Austria. The Tifosi were elated. And what of Vettel? An unforced spin. A needless ram of Stroll. And 13th place. 4-2.
Singapore is a difficult one. Neither driver made a mistake, but most would argue that Leclerc was robbed of a 3rd straight win. But there's no points to be given here, so let's move on.
Russia. Vettel's petulance, prior to his engine failure, isn't the worst thing listed here. That said, it added unnecessarily to the discord in the team. 5-2, if only because as team leader (at least, in theory) he should be bringing the team together, a la Schumacher (I know, I know...), rather than causing further tensions.
Japan was a bit of a non-event for Leclerc but there was nothing obviously wrong with his performance, other than Vettel simply beating him. The same is also true in Mexico.
America. Some blame Vettel for his suspension failure, some don't. I'll be charitable here and say that without complete consensus, no point awarded. The way Leclerc's suspension obliterated itself after only a light touch in Brazil helps his case too.
Which of course brings us to today. The Brazilian Grand Prix. Every single person who discussed this incident (save one) agreed that Vettel was either almost wholly, or wholly to blame for the double DNF. And the footage certainly supports that.
So that's 6-2 against Vettel. Leclerc, the relative rookie, has only a third of that number. He also has double the number of wins, and also of potential wins, compared to the 4-time WDC.
What, if any, future does Seb have in the sport? Does anyone expect another Ferrari contract to come his way? And if not, what's his next move?